Scenario Lab

Generate a fault scenario · 42Hz simulates blast radius, MTTR, cost, SLA impact
Build scenario
Asset
Fault mode
Severity70%
Response time35 min
Mitigations
↳ 42Hz simulator · cohort 412 events · OEM data
Failure probability
67%
30-day window
MTTR
3.5d
Mean time to recovery
Cost of inaction
$2.2M
to $5.6M (P10–P90)
SLA exposure
190h
$2880K penalty risk

Cascade timeline

OLTC arcing event
T+0T2: fault initiated
T+2s87T differential trips
T+6s52H2 opens · transformer isolated
T+45sAuto-restoration: 14 MW shifted to 52F24
T+8mNotification: NOC + on-call electrical lead
T+35mFirst responder on-site · LOTO begins
T+14hSpares ordered · 30-week lead
T+3dAsset returned to service

Impact

Customers + assets
MERIDIAN-04 outage
0 customers
Auto-restored < 60s
Blast radius
~1575 kVA
Adjacent assets stressed
Downstream impact
T1 thermal headroom32% → 24%
T3 thermal headroom31% → 25%
52F23 protection setRe-armed
Crew utilization+50 crew-hrs

42Hz recommendations · ranked by ROI

#1−$3.8M
Pre-stage 72 kV bushing now

Cuts MTTR 41% if winding event materializes. APG lead is 30 weeks — order before May 2.

#2−$1.6M
Auto-shift 14 MW T2→T1+T3

Already armed in switching plan. Apply in current state to remove SLA exposure window.

#3−$0.4M
Tighten 87T-2 trip threshold

Faster differential pickup reduces blast radius ~22% in cascade simulations.